<p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; text-indent: 2em; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text !important;">市场核心表现</span></p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">　　现货市场：企稳反弹，局部小幅上涨</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">　　全国玉米均价总体延续了小幅反弹的走势，虽然局部地区存在窄幅调整，但波动地区数量增加，总体呈现涨多跌少的格局。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">　　东北产区：价格表现坚挺。吉林长春地区优质新玉米装车价格涨至2040-2060元/吨，较前日上涨20元/吨。北方港口中，锦州港和鲅鱼圈港的水分15%新玉米收购价均为2115-2120元/吨，小幅上涨5元/吨。广东蛇口港水分15%玉米散粮成交价维持在2290-2310元/吨，与昨日持平</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">　　新粮集中上市，东北收割进度超五成、华北过六成，基层售粮积极性高。东北产地发往港口的利润不佳，导致北方港口集港量有所减少。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">　　北方港口等待装运的船期较多，支撑贸易商的收购心态。南方饲料企业虽然对现货采购仍显谨慎，但开始倾向于采购中长期合同。中储粮轮换收购范围扩大，在黑龙江等地的收购行为对市场信心起到稳定作用</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">　　玉米期货市场表现强势，主力合约资金关注度提升。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">　　盘面“增仓缩量，收阳线”，显示当前价位下多空分歧较大，但多方略占优势。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text !important;">　　玉米市场动态分析及重点关注</span></p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;玉米市场在政策和供应暂缓的推动下出现企稳反弹。华北地区由于持续阴雨天气结束，天气转好，基层售粮压力减轻，深加工企业到货量减少，价格随之出现止跌反弹。而东北地区的价格则表现为止跌企稳，部分区域小幅上涨。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;国内主产区的玉米销售进度有所放缓，基层农户的惜售情绪开始抬头。一方面，随着市场价格接近甚至触及种植成本线，农户继续低价销售的意愿减弱。另一方面，东北地区的降温天气改善了玉米的保存条件，使得农户不必急于出售潮粮，缓解了阶段性供应压力。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;此外11-12月可能迎来新一轮的上量高峰，届时或将对价格再次形成压力。考虑到未来巨大的上市压力，当前的上涨行情能否持续仍需观察。预计全国均价将呈现“弱势震荡、局部反弹”的格局。东北价格在政策支撑下较为坚挺，华北地区则需关注天气好转后的上量情况。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text !important;">　　后期关注：</span></p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; 1、政策端：中央储备收购实效跟踪、周度成交率、实际收购量、区域价差变化</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 潜在信号：是否扩大收储规模、调整收购底价（尤其东北潮粮折算价是否接近深加工企业报价）。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; 2、供应侧：新粮上市与流通效率</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;潮粮价格向干粮传导速度；贸易商囤粮意愿（若基层售粮进度超 70% 后价格企稳，或形成阶段性底部）。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; 3、需求侧：饲用回暖与深加工补库</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 猪养殖利润、能繁母猪存栏、小麦替代量</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 自繁自养亏损扩大至 244.7 元 / 头，但能繁母猪存栏环比回落 0.1% 至 4038 万头，预示 2026 年 1 月后生猪供应或收缩。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 深加工需求：企业开机率、淀粉价格、库存周期</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 近期深加工到车量骤降反映补库启动，但开机率仍低于 70%。需关注 10 月底企业库存是否从当前 15 天提升至 20 天以上，验证需求复苏强度。</p><p style="color: rgb(44, 62, 80); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-wrap: wrap; white-space-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 10px 0px; position: relative; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em; user-select: text !important;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 短期内政策支撑显现起到了托市作用，有效提振了市场信心，但新粮集中上市的整体压力依然存在。需求端表现疲软，生猪养殖利润不佳抑制了饲料企业的采购积极性，部分需求还被小麦等替代品分流。由于渠道库存偏低，10月下旬到11月份期间价格可能出现一波阶段性的上涨行情。11-12月可能迎来新一轮新粮上量高峰，届时或将对价格再次形成压力。</p>